Prediction: Bing Will Surpass Yahoo in 2010

A month or so ago, I made the bold prediction that Microsoft’s revamped search engine, Bing, would one day compete with Google for the top spot amongst the top search engines.  Although that may be a bit premature (Google currently owns a commanding 74% of the search market), it’s clear that Bing is quickly encroaching on the #2 spot and looks to overtake industry veteran, Yahoo (16%) in the near future. 

Dubbed a “Decision Engine”, Bing touts itself as a more efficient alternative to traditional search.  With a combination of “Ask type” features and improved search query results, Bing endeavors to deliver faster and more informed results that improve the overall user experience.

Bings recent transformation from a perennial #3 to a serious threat to Yahoo for the coveted #2 spot began with a great deal of buildup and was recently bolstered by a $100m advertising campaign on every conceivable advertising medium.

Rather than face the prospect of eating serious crow, I have revised my position slightly and am now predicting that Bing’s steady climb will move the new Microsoft prodigy past Yahoo sometime in the 1st Quarter 2010.

You think I’m crazy?  Let’s look at the numbers.  June 2009 numbers saw Bing’s market share increase steadily increase from 4.3% to 6.71% for an average of 5.25% over the same period.  Despite the fact that Bing’s market share is slightly lower than last years’ numbers, the former MSN Lives’ 25% growth in June 2009 (Hitwise) point to a dramatic change in the top 3 positions in the near future.

It’s important to note that I am not basing my predictions on these numbers alone.  Since Bing’s unveiling on May 28th, each of my clients companies have enjoyed a significant uptick in search engine traffic and, more importantly, as much as 50% in increased conversions.  It may be early, but that’s good news for our clients and businesses in general.  Therefore, I don’t think it’s entirely the result of the fanfare surrounding the recent launch party, rather, it appears that there is something truly different about this new search engine that helps deliver this type of result.  

Numbers aside, my gut is telling me something’s about to change.  Not only do I now use Bing for all my search activity, but I notice something happening that reminds me of what occurred when Google first entered the market fray.  I recall back in the late 90’s I was working with a telecom start-up and vividly remember a meeting with an IT consultant. 

At the time, I was using search engines like Alta Vista, Excite and Lycos when this guy told me about a new search engine developed by some strange company called Google.  Simply put, he was ga-ga over this search engine with the funny name.  Turns out, what I learned later was this new search engine was quickly gaining popularity within a very specific market segment – IT professionals.  These savvy technology veterans had discovered Google’s superior application and had, in essence, become Google evangelists.  Being an internet newbie and because these folks knew more than me, I listened to these folks and immediately began using the new kid on the block.

Let’s fast forward 10 years to 2009 where I am noticing a similar phenomena – this time with Bing.  Even at this early stage of Bings’ development, I am hearing the rumbling of excitement from a network of early adopters.  But this time it’s not so much the IT community but rather business owners in general – people like you and me.

The difference this time is that many executives have become quite sophisticated in the use of the Internet, search engines and the application of online technology for business processes.  No longer do business managers lean on IT so much for what is considered “state-of-the-art” internet technology.  Instead, informed professionals are able to make these decisions on their own and in the age of “hyper-connectivity” are able to communicate helpful trends themselves.

Another important factor that will aid in Bings mighty ascent is Yahoo’s own reinvention process.  There are few who would dispute the fact that Yahoo is at a serious organizational crossroad and that exhaustive attempts to re-define the search portal’s core competencies have been the company’s primary focus over the last few years. Serious technology development there has been at a virtual standstill, and if you think that they’ll just buy their way out in the form of an acquisition or even leveraged 3rd party development, think again. 

Close sources indicate the internal environment at Yahoo is so incredibly fragmented and fraught with bureaucratic red tape, that even if they wanted to, they can’t come together long enough to get a deal done – at least landmark deals like Google is able to strike.     

While Yahoo is hunkered down trying to re-tool and organize its business model, the opportunity for Bing to gain valuable ground on the incumbent #2 is promising.  If business owners continue to experience positive results in Bing’s SERPs, it may just be a matter of time before my prediction materializes.